The Cards Spoke

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10/26/2003

 

Sportsbook result: Fumble saves the day


I think I bit my nails down to the roots, but the ball bounced my day today. My first four bets cancelled each other out, leaving my big bet to decide whether or not I ended up in the red or black. Watching my team rally in a late comeback and a big fumble recovery in OT was quite nice. A quick recap:

 26-October-2003   Money Line   Football - Denver Broncos  -75.00 
Ahh, Danny Kanell. I can't believe after I found out he was starting I let my bet ride. Should have immediately got out of that. Guy hasn't played a game in three years and he's going against Ray Lewis. This qualifies as my worst bet of the season.

 26-October-2003   Spread   Football - Seattle Seahawks  -80.25 
Well, Kitna and the Bengals proved me wrong. This was a bad bet... I haven't seen much of Seattle, and I was mostly going on statistics here.

 26-October-2003   Spread   Football - Tampa Bay Buccaneer   +75.00 
To toot my own horn, I was on the money here. Quincy and the Dallas high-school offense was confused by TB's complex defense, and ended up being shut out.

 26-October-2003   Spread   Football - Tennessee Titans     +75.00 
I didn't see the highlights of this game, but it was a blowout (30-17 tenn), as expected. Tennessee is tough (Jacksonville is not), and the handicappers don't seem to give them enough respect... Do not bet against McNair...

26-October-2003 Money Line Football - Carolina Panthers +148.75
And in the grand finale, this may have been one of my greatest comeback sportsbook victories ever. I have been on the other end of the stick many times (most recently in TB's horrible choke against Indy on Monday night), and haven't had the thrill of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat... From ESPN's recap:

Carolina staged a 58-yard drive, fueled by two pass interference calls and capped by Davis' second touchdown, a 1-yard dive that put Carolina up 20-17 with 3:45 left.

The Saints (3-5) tied it on a 42-yard field goal by John Carney with 36 seconds to go.

New Orleans won the coin toss in overtime and drove to the Carolina 37 before Deuce McAllister fumbled on fourth-and-1. Then Carolina went 50 yards, with Davis breaking free for 33, and Kasay hit his third field goal of the game.

"We stayed with what we do best," Davis said. "That's running
the ball."


I guess this bet wasn't quite as good as I thought it was, but in the end, John Fox knew that Carolina could run over New Orleans.

Summary: 4-2 for the week (I'm counting the Carolina game as 2 wins, since it was a two-unit bet)
22-11 season
I was a bit lucky today with the Carolina game, but I should be whipped for both the Denver and Seattle bets. The Denver bet was made when I thought Beurleein would start, and I think they would have won if he did-- but as soon as you find out that the QB hasn't started a game in 3 years, you better put your money back in your pocket. I should have taken the hit on the juice and got away from this bet. The Seattle game was a mistake because I didn't have enough information about either team... Just like the media, I overrated the Seahawks... I saw them in the Green Bay game for a couple series and was somewhat impressed, failing to notice that they had no running game whatsoever. Never bet on a team that you haven't seen for more than a quarter. The TB and Tenn games I was on the money with, but I should have thought about the Carolina game... the Saints D had all their starters back, rested after being hurt, and the last time the teams played it was pretty close. I almost took St. Louis against Pitt, and would have won that bet, but got undermined by the media's argument that Pitt really is a good team. Replace Danny Kanell with Marc Bulger and I would have had a $225 weekend.

Ah well, I'll take it.

Bonus MNF pick
Miami (-6) over SD, in Arizona
The fires here in SC have moved the game from SD to Arizona, causing havoc in sportsbooks across the land. I actually got Miami at +103, which means people must be betting on SD, who has one of the worst run defenses in the league. Ricky is coming off two bad games, so I think he'll pound the SD backers for 100+ and two TDs, while Seau and the Miami D won't have too much trouble with Tomlinson.



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